20200210th-18th: Coronavirus Thread

We still don’t have a firm handle on this virus. The uncertainty leads to fear in a general population. Within this thread, we will share everything we know, culled from multiple sources. Thank you to all who contribute.

  • Bullet point items:
  • Cruise Ship docked and quarantined in Japan Diamond Princess, docked off Yokohama: now has 454 infected persons. Americans evacuate from the ship are testing positive, now quarantined at a military base in Texas.
  • Taxi Cab drivers and physicians reported the problem in Wuhan as early as December 8th-9th.
  • Official Death toll is 1,775 (Updated 8:00am Eastern, February 13, 2020) (could be thousands more)
  • In China, 70,553 confirmed cases (could be thousands to millions) with over 71,810 confirmed worldwide (Updated 8:00am Eastern, February 17, 2020)
  • Dashboard to update number of cases within China and worldwide: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  • Hardest hit is Hubei province, healthcare system is overloaded, but we’re seeing death tolls reported from Jilin, to Sichuan, to Guangdong to Chongqing – it’s all over China.
  • More contagious than Seasonal Flu, Spanish Flu, or SARS.
  • WHO team was allowed into China February 9th. USA has been offering assistance to China since January 6th.
  • USA delivered 100 million dollars of AID to China to battle the virus.
  • Approximately 80% of China’s export economy is shut down.
  • The Chinese central bank plans to pump $22 billion into the economy amid reports that the coronavirus or COVD19 will lower the expected growth of China’s economy from 2.1% to 1.2%. Farmers are having problems getting trucks to take their food supplies into towns for deliver…… system shutdown.
  • Under pressure from leadership, the Apple factory reopened…. but only 10% of the workforce showed up for duty. Other province governors have barred companies from reopening.
  • China agreed to “half” their tariffs on US goods, looking for economic relief from the USA
  • Economic impact on China will be severe
  • Japan’s economy contracted 1.6% as they face Coronavirus.
  • South Korea shut down their Hyundai plant due to lack of parts manufactured in China.
  • Statistics and information coming out of China are highly questionable.
A map of Chinese provinces will help us get oriented within the country.

Exceptionally valuable information is found in Pandemic Episode 15. Rosemary Gibson, Senior Advisor to the Hastings Center, took three years to investigate the state of Americas pharmaceuticals, culminating in the book “China RX”. Did you know the last aspirin factory in the USA closed down in 2004? Did you know that the USA can no longer MAKE Vitamin C? Did you know tainted heparin from China cause many deaths of American citizens….. it was Made in China. And did you know that our politicians have known about the problem/national security/health security for decades?

Also within this program is an interview with Mike Bowen, Senior VP and owner of Prestige Ameritech, the last manufacturer of N-95 Medical Grade Masks in the USA. It’s an interview which will make you scream in frustration, and cry because of the ineptness of our bureaucrats and trade policies……. The facility used to supply about 79% of the market in the USA until purchased by Kimberly Clark….. shut down and shipped overseas, losing thousands of jobs and endangering Americans. It’s a must watch.

Gail Combs, fellow Treeper, is one of our best researchers. I believe she is a physicist. Wish I could give you her whole bio, yet this is the internet.… Gail has agreed to compile valuable info for us all, found below. Thank you, Gail! And thank you to BakoCarl for more resource links!


1. China does not have enough tests kits to document all suspected cases. The test can easily show a negative for people with the disease. Politically, China has good reason to lie. Also since it is a deep lung infection a cheek or throat swap can give a false positive. Coughed up sputum gives 11% more positives.

2. The virus attaches to ACE2 expressers deep in the lungs.
Men have 4 times as many ACE2 expressers as women and are 3 times as likely to get it.
Asians have 5 times as many as Africans/Europeans.

In early stats, (Jan2 – 41 people) less than half had underlying diseases BUT it does affect those with chronic inflammatory diseases including diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease (probably asthma too.)

3. Those without symptoms or with very mild symptoms can spread it. It can be spread via coughs, contact surfaces and with feces. Diarrhea is one of the possible symptoms. (Not good for San Fran-feces.)

Surface Survival of the Virus

4. We do not know how many without symptoms may have come over on early flights. Running a temperature many not appear immediately after contact with the virus.
”mean incubation period to be 6.4 (5.6 – 7.7, 95% CI) days, ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days”

Revised: 6.4 –> 5.2 days. (~5 to 7 days) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.02.20020016v1

”….time in hospital prior to death 10+ days I think for most of them….
…I have seen several references that said about 25% of confirmed cases get serious complications and something like 15% end up in ICU.”
 – Larry L.

76% of the confirmed 2019-nCov cases from 1 hospital in Wuhan required oxygen therapy.

5. According to MedCram US CDC/hospitals are using a SWAB (throat?) and 11 out of 178 tested positive. The problem is a throat or cheek swab while simpler to obtain, give false negatives while sputum samples are more reliable.

6. The first victim here in the USA required a long hospital stay of at least 2 weeks. He was still coughing after two weeks and therefore probably still infectious.

7. People the most at risk are 50 years and over with pre-existing chronic inflammatory diseases. (Patriot Nurse)

Mortality by age comparison between MERS, SARS and 2019-nCoV

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) summed it up this way:

…the Wuhan coronavirus has three features:

♦️ it is an RNA virus that mutates easily,
♦️ it is more contagious than SARS,
♦️ and it can spread from an asymptomatic person.

This means that even someone who has recovered from the virus can transmit it, making it more difficult to curb its spread.

As a result, Hsieh said it is possible that the virus could stay dormant in the body after recovery and come back to haunt the host in winter or when their immune system is weakened…. *


The virus is probably ‘free’ here in the USA. I t is more severe for men, especially older men and older people with chronic inflammatory disease. It requires a long hospital stay. Children may show little sign of the disease.

“What we think will happen over the next several weeks, will be more and more cases will begin to show up that have no obvious contact back to China,” –Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

THEREFORE the goal is to prevent rapid spread of the disease especially to those over 50 so the hospitals are not overwhelmed. IF the system is overwhelmed the elderly WILL NOT GET CARE!

1a: the sorting of and allocation of treatment to patients and especially battle and disaster victims according to a system of priorities designed to maximize the number of survivors


If you are older stay away from your grand kids! Larry L. suggested a 3 – 6 foot distance from other people, a pathologist suggests 6 to 9 feet.

Interesting items on survival times for various bugs on different surfaces and conditions.
https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-long-do-bacteria-and-viruses-live-outside-the-body/ ~ or ~ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021850217302239

Removing Gloves

”There is a minimum effective infectious dose. Greater doses increases the likelihood of infection. This also affects the incubation period. The lower the exposure, the longer the time needed for the infection to get going internally; and with that, the longer it will be before that person becomes infections and/or shows symptoms. Recall that most symptoms are due to activation of the immune system, and not from the infection itself.” — cdquarles 

For the painter/farmer masks: (N95 or N100)
3m has p100 filters with no sorbents, such as #2091, and then I saw ‘improved’ version #2291 I think. The 2091 are bright fuscia. I think I’ve seen people ambulating near Stanford hospital sporting these as facial fashion. Much easier to breath, and very comfortable with the 7502 ‘faceplate’. I had no sense of ‘rebreathing’ or claustro.

How to properly wear a mask- short video in link: https://twitter.com/i/status/1221247891714514945



Larry Ledwick  has a HOW TO
for homemade mask:


Many people wonder what they can do to NOT get the virus. If we think of Coronavirus like a “super-flu”, it makes sense to follow good general hygiene principles, eat well, and get plenty of rest. Here are some extra hints from Gail.

High dose Vit C for anti viral activity.

Nutritional Treatment of Coronavirus

Orthomolecular Medicine News Service, Jan 30, 2020 recomends, VERY HIGH levels of Vitamin C.

Please read the whole article. At the bottom are references and recommended reading.

In summary:

What dosage?
Vitamin C fights all types of viruses. Although the dose should truly be high, even a low supplemental amount of vitamin C saves lives. This is very important for those with low incomes and few treatment options. For example, in one well-controlled, randomized study, just 200 mg/day vitamin C given to the elderly resulted in improvement in respiratory symptoms in the most severely ill, hospitalized patients. And there were 80% fewer deaths in the vitamin C group. [7]
…The sicker a person was, the more ascorbic acid they would tolerate orally without it causing diarrhea. In a person with an otherwise normal GI tract when they were well, would tolerate 5 to 15 grams of ascorbic acid orally in divided doses without diarrhea…..
But to best build up our immune systems, we need to employ large, orthomolecular doses of several vital nutrients. The physicians on the Orthomolecular Medicine News Service review board specifically recommend at least 3,000 milligrams (or more) of vitamin C daily, in divided doses. Vitamin C empowers the immune system and can directly denature many viruses. It can be taken as ascorbic acid (which is sour like vinegar), either in capsules or as crystals dissolved in water or juice. It can also be taken as sodium ascorbate, which is non-acidic. To be most effective, it should be taken to bowel tolerance. This means taking high doses several (or many) times each day. See the references below for more information….

Magnesium: 400 mg daily (in citrate, malate, chelate, or chloride form)…..

Vitamin D3: 2,000 International Units daily. (Start with 5,000 IU/day for two weeks, then reduce to 2,000)…..

Zinc is a powerful antioxidant and is essential for many biochemical pathways. It has been shown to be effective in helping the body fight infections. [20,21] A recommended dose is 20-40 mg/day for adults….

Selenium:100 mcg (micrograms) daily…..

B-complex vitamins and vitamin A: A multivitamin tablet with each meal will supply these conveniently and economically…..
Nutritional supplements are not just a good idea. For fighting viruses, they are absolutely essential

What Does Taking Massive Amounts of Vitamin C Do to Your Body?


Debunking of side effects:

From a fellow Q-Treeper (sorry I did not keep the Id) I have added the studies verifying the claims.

A VERY over-simplified version of how viruses work, immune boosting, and what you can do NOW. This is esp helpful for at risk age groups, but good for everyone.

Those spikes you see on virus pics allow it to puncture your cell wall and use the inside of your cell for food. Immune boosters help strengthen your cell wall, among other things.

ELDERBERRY SYRUP – (Sambucus n.) Strengthens your cell walls, and is shown to bind to flu viruses, preventing them from invading cells and replicating.

ASTRAGALUS – Helps increase the bodies production of interferon, and, reduces water retention.

ECHINACEA p. – Provides inulin, which improves white cells ability to fight in part by increasing properdin, increases and activates white cells, signals the body to release interferon.

VITAMIN C – Helps the red blood cells transport oxygen thru the body.
Your lymphatic system runs along (mostly) the same paths that your blood vessels use. However, your lymph system doesn’t have a “pump” the way your blood vessels have your heart to move things along. Your lymphatic system helps with your blood system to drain out the debris from your dead cell walls, dead virus cell, and white cells, etc. Keeping your lymphatic system clear of debris is why you are told to drink lots of fluids when you get sick. That junk needs to be urinated out, to keep the lanes clear for more white cells to attack the virus. There are also simple excercises that “pump” your lymphatics. These are all online. If you catch a virus, there are more things to add that may help.

So, if you get sick:
INCREASE YOUR IMMUNE BOOSTERS!!! like, every couple hours or so.
Drink LOT of fluids

Add STEROIDS to help reduce inflammation if necessary. This can be prescribed or LICORICE HERB (not the candy, sorry!) can be used.

NETTLES – Anti-histamine, anti-inflammatory, and diuretic. Is helpful with drying up runny noses, too!

…Phenolic compounds could be defined as biologically active and herbal and have positive effects on health. The scientific researches are increased about the positive effect of phenolic compounds into coronary heart disease and high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer, inflammative, viral and parasitic disease, psychotic disorders


DANDELION – A strong diuretic, has Vitamin C and potassium. (Most diuretics take out potassium along with the urine.)

For fever, Tylenol or Motrin. Some people don’t do fever control, as the higher temperatures help kill the virus, but I have seen seizures happen from this, so I think fever control is a good thing. Also, if your body is fight aches and fever, those are cells which can be helping fight the virus instead.
Again, very over-simplified, but some steps you can be taking NOW, and some herbs you can look into to see what may work for you and yours.

There are a lot of sites like this:
15 Foods That Boost the Immune System

I recommend looking for the scientific studies (pro and con) that actually support the claims of any health remedy not prescribed by a doctor as I have done above.

DISCLAIMER: I am a chemist and not a doctor. This is just a compilation from comments at both sites that may be of interest to readers. Think for your self!

Logical thinking.

473 thoughts on “20200210th-18th: Coronavirus Thread

  1. Long post by Sen. Blackburn about US vulnerability to China due to supply chains and manufacturing moved overseas. She focuses on pharmaceuticals. I wonder if they were even trustworthy with Quality control of our pharmaceuticals!

    Yet one more example of how the Globalists RINOs hurt the US and we US citizens.

    Thank you, President Trump for fighting back in the China/US trade wars and for standing up for American Workers and US economic and National security!

    Liked by 3 people

      1. REALLY odd/weird. When I clicked on this thread the first time, my link in the first post didn’t show up. I assumed I had forgotten to included (not the first time I have done that!) but now the link shows up in both posts. Sorry for cluttering the thread! Can delete both this and the 2nd post with the link in it if you like…


    1. My lingering concern, well one of them…

      We commonly read the Corona incubation period is 3-14 days. Can be one day. Can be up to 24 days.

      Yet, the focus continues to be 14 day quarantine. Are the one day and 24 day possibilities such outliers that we should not be concerned with them?

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Interesting tidbit. The “Naval Academy” in Wuhan was locked down weeks prior to official notice to the public.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Per the Chiefio blog Wuhan Coronavirus thread:

    The city government of WUHAN has decreed a COMPLETE lockdown of EVERY apartment building in the city.
    People living in these buildings will have to get permission from the government to leave their apartments.
    Food supplies are drying up.

    AND — per @marca — the official press release from the LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY:
    “The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen…we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the Ro value is likely to between 4.7 and 6.6.”

    As I stated previously ;
    An Ro factor of between 4.7 and 6.6 IS EQUIVALENT to the Ro factors for POLIO and SMALLPOX.
    There is an effective vaccine for POLIO. SMALLPOX has ben eradicated in almost ALL modern countries.
    There is NO vaccine for the Wuhan Coronavirus, and research into effective treatment is just starting.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. 1,000 “self isolated” in LA county. How many more around the US? How many did not self isolate when they first came here? How many traveled on planes with people who are not now self isolating as well?


    2. If this virus gets loose in the homeless population in L.A. or San Fran-feces, California is going to be a disaster zone.

      November 27, 2017: Homeless people defecating on LA streets fuels horror hepatitis outbreak, as city faulted

      ….An outbreak of hepatitis A is spreading through Los Angeles County after leaping from a large homeless contingent in San Diego, threatening thousands of people and fueling criticism that local officials have not done enough to contain the deadly liver disease.

      Hundreds of cases have turned up in southern California as well as Michigan — but conditions in Los Angeles, where roughly 50,000 people live on the streets, have prompted deeper concerns.

      Reports compiled by volunteer organizations have faulted city officials for not providing enough accessible toilets as the homeless population sharply increased by 23 percent this year.

      In a prescient warning, a June 2017 report by a collection of nonprofits called the LA Central Providers Collaborative sounded the alarm about crowding and living conditions on Skid Row….

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Gail Combs
        This fits in with the research about how he virus is transmitted via toilet flushing after a person who has the virus — but MAY NOT SHOW ANY SYMPTOMS — uses the toilet.
        Add this to the potential “re-infection rate” related to persons who “recover” from the virus, but still have it dormant in their bodies.
        And who runs Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Baltimore, etc.? — rabid DEMCOMS.


  4. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/15/coronavirus-mask-shortage-texas-manufacturing/
    From what I can read before the “Jeff Bezos Paywall” clamps down, it appears that the United States is starting to pay the price of letting Communist China provide the vast majority of face masks.
    Also —
    It appears that Beijing is starting to get concerned about the Wuhan Coronavirus spreading by the use of PAPER MONEY. Apparently the virus can live on paper for 4 – 5 days.
    And —
    per the Daily Mail: the government in HONG KONG has released a video on how to use PAPER TOWELS and KLEENEX to create a makeshift mask.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. from Rud @WUWT.


    Note that CHINA is going to USE the Gilead Science developed remdesivir that PROVED effective in the Washington State USA case…. AND PATENTED IT FOR USE IN THE WUHAN VIRUS…. B@$T@RD$.


    A “healthy” man from Aichi/#Nagoya flew to
    #Hawaii (Jan 28-Feb 7)
    He “cought a cold”, there (Feb 3).
    When he returned to #Japan, he got fever (Feb 8), his condition worsened, so that a #COVID19 test was done (Feb 13).



    Liked by 3 people

    1. There are national and international rules that apply to various circumstances of discovery, invention or development that do not just let someone, willy nilly, grab someone else’s product, put it in a different colored bottle and then successfully patent it for their own.

      However, this attempt certainly reveals the nature of the beast . . . B@$T@RD$.

      Liked by 3 people

    1. Yeah, I just went through our supply of vitamins et al and figured out what I need for a 3 to 6 month supply. (Check the expiration dates some stuff is only good for ~1 year.)

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Yup.

        Six months is my benchmark for this Corona drill. I mark my stuff to ensure first in, first out.

        Prescriptions, vitamins, OTC (aspirin, Tylenol, allergy, eye drops, nose spray, cough & cold meds, ointments & cremes, cough drops…

        And, extend to tooth paste, tooth brushes, mouthwash, floss…

        Liked by 1 person

    2. Ground report. Sorta of…Moar like afloat and port report.

      A week or two ago I posted That I shipped three cargo boxes (18″ x 20″ x 24) to the Philippines. At the time I wondered IF regular shipping times and or ports would be effected by Corona.

      – The boxes, which are stuffed in 20′ TEU / containers and loaded on a ship that sails from Oakland, CA.

      – Normally the 20′ TEU cross deck, change ships in Kaohsiung, TW or Hong Kong. Then sail onto Manila or Subic Bay, Philippines.

      To my SURPRISE . The 20′ TEU are reported in South Korea. My guess, Piusan. Or as many say Busan.

      Over the years, I have easily shipped 150 boxes. The 20′ TEUs are always cross decked in Kaohsiung, TW or Hong Kong. As indicated above, South Korea this time. NOT a coincidence, me thinks.

      MOAR evidence shipping in China is hosed.

      MY POINT IS STOCK UP on anything made in China. It’ll be months before China is functional again, if ever. The latter as alternate sources will be, and are being pursued by all good capitalists.

      Liked by 2 people

  6. Larry Ledwick

    “I finally found that link again”

    29 minutes ago

    Please see the article published by the medical professional magazine “The Lancet”. Regarding the characteristics of #2019nCoV Wuhan virus, the lungs have been damaged when asymptomatic, and it is highly infectious.
    📣truth Learn more!#CoronavirusOutbreak #COVID19 #coronavirus

    “Promising results from use of COVID-19 survivor blood transfusions (ie antibody treatment)”

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Larry L comment:
      “The assertion SARS-CoV-2 can infect you twice appears to trace from a random message from a relative of a doctor.”
      In other words garbage. Sorry about that.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. I have wondered if the 2nd time infections were maybe relapses instead. And maybe that was indication of releasing people too soon. It seemed odd to me that with the virus being so new and most of the “recovered” only recovering recently that they people would have had time to completely recover and then catch it again and die.

        And are the heart attacks/failure due to the meds weakening the heart or the virus weakening the heart? If meds, which meds?


        1. Maybe we need to reminder ourselves to not think that because your symptoms are gone, your illness is 100% gone with this virus. But this is Always true with other viruses too! How many times do the symptoms go away from a flu/cold/gen. virus and we think we are fine, try to jump back into life only to have a relapse?

          I explain to my son to think of our virus/infection/germs as our body doing battle and they are the enemy. Just because the majority of the enemy are defeated to the point that victory is obvious and even assured, we do not turn our back on the enemy and stop fighting. We have to finish the fight, the war, until victory and the enemy is defeated. If we do turn our back on the enemy, disengage, stop the fighting/actions that were taking us to victory the enemy will often then regroup and resurge, gaining back ground, inflicting harm and forcing us to fight much harder than when we almost had them defeated.

          Same viruses/illnesses. Just because symptoms dissipate or even completely disappear, we are actually still going through the illness, our bodies are still battling and we must still act is if we are sick in many ways.

          Son just had a virus. Made him cont. herbal teas, essential oils, low activity (no exercise, punching bag, martial arts, anything that made his body work too hard but did send him on several leisurely walks with the dog for some fresh air and sunshine while well bundled), healthy food, no sugar, plenty of ferment, homemade broth, and resting periods.

          Plus No time in the general public for 2 full days after temperature completely normal because a) he could still be shedding the virus and b) his immune system is down and I don’t want him to catch anything else.

          So, when symptoms are gone: yes, to more housework and yes, to more school work but all the rest stays almost the same as if he were sick for several more days as his body finishes up the fight.

          How much of that time we need to “recover” is us just still being sick just not as sick? And yes, the body Does need time to build back up but it might also still be getting rid of whatever it was that made you sick in the first place.

          Kind of like a graph with the peak of the number of active “enemies” in our body when we feel the worst and have the most symptoms and then the line plotting the level of “enemies” slides below acute systems, continues to fall even below the line of visible and physically felt symptoms …. but the line charting the active “enemies”/bacteria/”germs” is not yet at Zero. Until at Zero or close to it, we still must cont being aware they are there, even if we don’t stay in bed at that point. Keep aiding your body, keep your exposure to other germs low and we need to do our best to not have a relapse as relapse of this virus is terribly hard on the body.


  7. This is interesting…
    Larry L.
    “US – California: Person tested for #Coronavirus in San Diego is in ICE custody.

    The Currency pathway of infection. Chinese officials Central bank’s decision of collecting cash for sterilization or destruction. The #COVID19 can live 4-5 days on paper.”


    “Interesting – there is a drug that treats a corona virus which only infects cats – can it be a blue print for a human drug? It is also chemically very similar to Remdesivir which has been used in China to help control the infection of COV-SARS-2.”



  8. Larry L. “For comparison some survival times on surfaces for other major virus types.”

    “(note the type of surface makes a big difference, survival is often longest on surfaces we think of as easy to clean like stainless steel and counter tops, much less on surfaces like clothing and carpet)”

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Bill In Oz @ ChiefIO had the same info nicely laid out:

      16 February 2020 at 4:23 am

      Diamond Princess Update

      Total number of people on board — 3700
      Number of people tested — 1219
      Number who tested positive today — 70
      Number testing positive with NO symptoms — 38
      Number testing positive to Corona Virus so far –355

      Thirty eight people out of seventy were carrying the virus with NO symptoms.

      Herein lies the reason why the Chinese government have imposed such a complete lockdown on Wuhan has the surrounding province.

      Link : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134

      I will add, the ones tested earlier who were negative could now be positive.

      ALSO THE TEST IS FLAKY it gives false negatives.

      cdquarles says:
      13 February 2020 at 5:12 pm
      “…That said, all numbers being reported are estimates at best with errors. How large and which direction are not currently known and may never be known. Viral testing is rather crude right now, compared to bacterial testing, for instance. You want screening tests to err on the side of sensitivity, risking false positives. You want confirmatory tests to err on the side of specificity, risking false negatives. Take any paper revolving around Bayes factors or p-values with a large grain of salt; especially if they’re lacking proper error analysis and propagation.”

      Larry Ledwick gets into the weeds:



      Background: Since the outbreak of coronaviruses on December 8, 2019, the spread of new coronaviruses is increasing. With no specific medicine, analysis of epidemic trends is critical for disease control and epidemic risk management. Methods: We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by Feburary 6, 2020.

      Considering the huge population migration during the spring festival of China, a Flow-SEIR model is proposed to perform empirical analysis. Assuming that most of people will go back to work from February 10 to the end of February, the risk of the coming migration from home to workplace is defined and estimated, based on the confirmed cases and the Spring Festival migration data. We use data from Baidu Migration to estimate the coming migration for returning to the workplace after vacation from February 10 to 28, 2020.

      The risk of migration for returning was then estimated. Main findings:
      (1). The time when the number of daily new cases has reached a peak level, i.e. the national epidemic inflection point, is expected to be on February 7 – February 9.

      After the inflection point, the number of infected people will grow slowly and the epidemic will be gradually controlled.

      We define the temporal number of infected cases as the net cumulative number of cases. And the peak value represents the maximum of the net cumulative number, after this peak point, the current number of cases will gradually decrease and the epidemic will gradually subside.

      The predicted peak value of confirmed cases in Hubei can reach 62800 (56900 – 70300, 0.95 CI). The peak time in Hubei is on February 29 (Feb. 25 – Mar. 08, 0.95 CI). The peak arrival time of areas except Hubei will be in the interval of Mar.8 – Mar. 15, 2020.

      It will take about 1.5-2 months from the peak to the end of the epidemic. Most provinces have the predicted peak values less than 1000. The potential epidemic situation will be stable in March 2020- June 2020.

      (2). Rather than larger outbreak, the estimated number of infective patients in Hubei (in which Wuhan is located) presents a front and steep feature, manifesting the overall trend that the epidemic tends to be consistent.

      (3). The necessary consciousness of self-protection and isolation is very effective for epidemic prevention and control. It can reduce the number of patients by nearly 90%. The effect of self-protection and isolation is stronger than the policy of traffic blockage. Provincial level traffic blockage can only alleviate 21.06% – 22.38% of the peak number of patients.

      (4). Early warning of epidemic situation is very important.In the experimental environment, the results show that if there is 1 day in advance of the timely urban blockage, about 3600 people will eventually be reduced in the country. If there is 1 day of delay, about 1800 people will finally be at risk.

      (5). Assuming that the false negative rate is 50% and the potential transmission rate is 1-4 times higher than that of the confirmed patients, the real peak number of patients is likely to be between 214400-472500.

      Suppose that the transmission rate of the false negative patient is twice that of the confirmed patient, if the false negative rate decreased by 5% in one week, the peak number of patients will slow down by 11.62%. If the proportion decreased by 10% in one week, the peak number of patients will decreased by 21.91%, which shows timely detection of false negative population is more effective for epidemic control.

      (6). Under the natural condition, the return of Spring Festival transportation will aggravate the epidemic situation, especially for Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, Shanghai, Fujian and Beijing. We did not perform the global propagation of 2019-nCoV because that the available initial data is not sufficient to make valuable conclusions.

      download pdf


      Liked by 1 person

  9. NOT discounting the potential disaster, Corona could become here in US. Reflecting on Johns Hopkins numbers. IF, my math is correct…(and formatting holds in WP)

    Cases %
    All 69,267 100
    Mainland China 68,508 98.90
    NOT Mainland China 759 1.10
    Cruise Ship 355 0.51
    Other 404 0.58
    US only 15 0.02

    Suspicious eye also maintaining focus on:
    – A few thousand in official US quarantine.
    – Another few thousand in US self monitor.

    Based on above, LUCK and USG response thus far, likelihood of Corona crisis in US far lower than I initially thought, a couple weeks ago
    – Have prepared masks, gloves, goggles, cleaning stuff in event they are required. EASY for our household to self quarantine as a preventive measure if the need arises.

    Moar realistically, my primary focus, IS now on stuff we assumed from China would always be available. AND likely won’t be available.
    – Meds and OTC will be maintained six months.
    – Other stuff including food, maintained at three months. Can ramp up easily to six months IF US based Corona cases take a serious foot hold in US.

    100% throughout each day, I’ll be reading this thread absorbing folks posts and insights. Daily reads will continue to be Larry, Johns Hopkins, South China News, Taiwan News, Straits Times… At a minimum, supply chain and logistics disruptions will be part of our lives.

    Again, not taking my eye off of Corona. Simply lowering my perceived Corona threat level.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. You mentioned food stuff from China…based on their issues of quality control and that the virus has now been loose for 6-8 weeks, do you want food from China even if the flow is not disrupted?

      Better of buy food manufactured in US or Mexico or anywhere but China! Not just for the various but as an ongoing norm. Even when they do maintain quality control, they hide issues including in food and even in Baby Food & Formula!

      We avoid anything that is for our intake made in China

      Liked by 2 people

      1. My poor communication skills. displayed..

        No, I don’t stock food from China. I buy the stuff typically found in COSTCO, Walmart and Smith’s (local supermarket).

        My reference to food is separate from sourcing from China. I was NOT clear.

        From China stuff – six month stock. Prescriptions, OTC…

        OTHER stuff, mainly food, three months. Easily expanded to six months is Corona hits the fan in US OR panic shortages appear to become a reality.

        Agree, China is NOT my source for food.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. With regard to food from/in China, and farming thereof, Chiefio (E.M.Smith) has an interesting comment at https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125040
        (The comment is a reply in a subthread, as it were, about RNA replication being a tad sloppy, etc. Seems Chinese “farming” is horridly unsafe).

        THE big problem with attributing source, ANY source, is that RNA Virus replication is sloppy (thus the frequent recombinations requiring a new flu vaccine each year) and can often cross species.

        So you find it looks just like a bit in Pangolin. Did they get it from snuffling bat droppings? Did bats get it from eating fruit where a pangolin shat? Or sneezed? Some bit matches some other bit from a lab: was a lab worker sloppy so “caught it” but didn’t notice, then sneezed while shopping for live food, and it went home with the unsold stock that evening (then to the farm population then into the wild, where it recombined into a new coronavirus).

        Parts just do not stay put in RNA viruses. They do not replicate perfectly either, so mutate fast. Especially in mixed species populations. Part of why new flu tends to come from Asia is that they farm pigs in pens over water so their waste fertilizes the water, then ducks are raised on the pond. Rapid virus cycling from birds to pigs to people and back, gives rapid recombination with other virus types in the various hosts. Then the successful one can hitch a ride on migratory birds to the rest of the world.

        Similarly, an exotic food animal dealer can have live stock of pangolin and bats housed near each other, sharing… (Chinese have an obsession with “fresh” that verges on the absurd. One fish dish has the chef grasp the head in a towel and deep fry the body, delivering it to the diner with the head still alive and gill plates moving…)

        In that context, with mixed live populations of exotic animals all over the place, trying to ascribe the path through the populations via one viral segment is a bit silly, and even 90-something % just hints at the first link, not the path.

        Virus populations are more like a stew of mystery parts than a steak of one thing. Then the Chinese animal practices give that stew lots of opportunities to jump species.

        So did the lab worker who was bat bit have “fresh” pangolin for dinner the night before and gave something new to the bats? Did the guy who slaughtered that bat later get the new mix in bat blood on his clothes? Or did they just go buy some live bats from the “fresh” food market that had them caged next to the pangolin?

        Messy? Yup. That’s the context for trying to sort out the path.


        1. I forgot to bold parts of these two paragraphs which absolutely horrify me. So much for Chinese food:

          Parts just do not stay put in RNA viruses. They do not replicate perfectly either, so mutate fast. Especially in mixed species populations. Part of why new flu tends to come from Asia is that they farm pigs in pens over water so their waste fertilizes the water, then ducks are raised on the pond. Rapid virus cycling from birds to pigs to people and back, gives rapid recombination with other virus types in the various hosts. Then the successful one can hitch a ride on migratory birds to the rest of the world.

          Similarly, an exotic food animal dealer can have live stock of pangolin and bats housed near each other, sharing… (Chinese have an obsession with “fresh” that verges on the absurd. One fish dish has the chef grasp the head in a towel and deep fry the body, delivering it to the diner with the head still alive and gill plates moving…)


  10. Regarding gathering in supplies:
    In my opinion, it is time to have this accomplished AND household action plans in place, by the end of February.
    A 3 month gathering the minimum — better to have 6 months.
    Water is imperative — think about what the household would do about water if the local water utility is shut down for some reason — like a virus loose in the system? It is NOT without the realm of possibility, given that the virus can be transmitted via toilet use / flushing; or by an infected person spitting into a sink and then running water..
    If one has Subscriptions of food staples / paper products / OTC items, etc., from places like Amazon — perhaps time to double up on them and have them in hand.

    And over in WUHAN, per @globaltimesnews
    The Communist Chinese government, apparently not content with (or perhaps now in near-panic mode over) the virus, has decreed that NO private cars may be on the roads unless the vehicle is “designated for use” in fighting the disease.

    Liked by 1 person

        1. the Chiefio gang talk about how to sterilize cash:

          This on sterilizing cloth masks:

          I have had a couple dollars go through the wash in a jeans pocket with to trouble so That is worth a try. Try one of those mesh bag for dainties and soap and Clorox on a dollar bill and see if it comes out OK.

          Liked by 1 person

  11. kalbokalbs,

    The Coronavirus in China vs the USA are Apples and Oranges.

    This is just my take:

    The lethal aspect of the virus is the attack against deep lungs.

    The Chinese, esp. the men are heavy smokers. China is very crowded. China is notorious for the heavy air pollution. ALL three of these factors will increase the transmission and increase the likelihood of severe illness/death.

    On top of that we in the USA are forewarned. Hopefully the hospitals are on the alert and also we have now found methods for alleviating the symptoms.

    Last viruses mutate fast and it is likely the virus will mutate into a less lethal form.

    This does not mean we should not plan ahead to protect ourselves and lessen our exposure.

    I think this is KEY to how sick a person gets:
    We know from Asbestosis that cigarette smoking makes it much much worse. The reason is smoking damages the cillia, the hairs in the lungs that remove foreign particles.

    Cilia Dysfunction in Lung Disease

    The ciliated and secretory cells are the first line of defense against inhaled pathogens and particulates. This includes tight junctions linking the cells, providing a physical barrier; receptors that sense the environment signaling the cells to secrete defense-related molecules in response to inhaled pathogens, particulates and xenobiotics; and importantly, the mucociliary escalator, a layer of fluid and mucins lining the epithelium that functions to clean the airways by moving continuously from the lower respiratory tract cephalad, where it is insensibly swallowed (2–4). The effectiveness of the mucociliary escalator depends on hydration, mucins produced by secretory cells and on the coordinated function of the ciliated cells that provides the force and direction of the escalator (4). When there is dysfunction of the mucociliary escalator, the defenses of the epithelium are markedly weakened, resulting in lung disease…..

    Cigarette Smoking
    Smoking has long been recognized to suppress mucociliary clearance in most smokers and there is documented slowing of mucociliary clearance immediately after smoking cigarettes (93, 94). Individuals with bronchitis have reduced mucociliary clearance (95). Smoking cessation improves measurements of nasal mucociliary clearance compared to baseline values obtained prior to smoking cessation (96).

    Examination of the airway ciliated cells of both male and female smokers shows patches of atypical nuclei and missing cilia (97). These abnormalities increase with increasing intensity of smoking behavior, and are more frequent in smokers using high tar/nicotine cigarettes (98). Smoking induces expression of epidermal growth factor (EGF) in ciliated cells, which may shift basal cell fate toward a squamous phenotype and suppress ciliated cell differentiation (99). Healthy smokers have shorter cilia in the large and small airways compared to nonsmokers, with further shortening observed in smokers with COPD (49, 50). Smoking is associated with suppression of a number of genes in the airway epithelium, likely contributing to slowing the process of regenerating cilia….

    Environmental Pollutants
    Several studies link environmental exposure to airborne pollutants to cilia abnormalities and dysfunction. Nasal biopsies from Mexico City residents exposed to high levels of air pollution showed patches of short cilia and regions of cilia loss (119). Healthy nonsmokers exposed to ozone at 0.4 ppm or sulfur dioxide at 0.75 ppm showed no abnormalities in cilia structure assessed in nasal samples, though experimental animals exposed to substantially higher concentrations of ozone (4 ppm) demonstrated blebbing and vesiculation of ciliary membranes as well as disruption of trachea cilia structure (120). Exposure of cultured human bronchial epithelial cells to diesel exhaust particles, but not to NO2, reduces cilia beat frequency (121). Compounds present in indoor air pollution, including formaldehyde, acrolein, and ammonia have effects on cilia beating and structure as well as mucus flow (122). Workplace exposures have also been linked to cilia dysfunction, including cadmium (reduced cilia beat frequency), nickel (reduced cilia beat frequency, cell damage and disorganized cilia), hairspray (reduced mucociliary clearance in the nose and trachea of hairdressers), and wood dust (decreased nasal mucociliary clearance and loss of ciliated epithelium) (122)….

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Absolutely with you. I believe we we forewarned enough, with China locking down cities / provinces, air traffic was curtailed fast enough to limit exposure to those having been in Wuhan recently…

      With continued luck, Corona in the States will be very limited and hospitals will be prepared.

      After we read for days that guys were getting Corona at very high rates, was relieved to learn the connection to smokers.

      Certainly will remain vigilant throughout each day for quite awhile.

      Liked by 1 person

  12. M Simon says:

    “Maybe a lab release is not so far fetched after all.”


    According to an earlier Xinhua report, a draft of a biosecurity law was submitted to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee for review in October.

    The draft focused on protecting the security of China’s biological resources, and preventing and prohibiting the use of biological agents or biotechnology that may harm national security, the report said. It also addressed issues such as prevention of emerging infectious diseases and epidemics, and biosecurity at laboratories, making public health part of national security.


    More evidence of a lab accident…



    Bill in Oz
    “The South China Morning Post is published in Hong Kong.It is an English language daily staffed by people who are Hong Kong Chinese and who have links into China.

    Here is a link to it’s news today : https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050848/coronavirus-man-middle-class-hong-kong

    There are a string of articles which provide the Hong Kong perspective and a view into China as well.

    One thing immediately stood out when i looked at the total figures for numbers infected by country : Japan with 407 cases is the second highest after Mainland China. I suspect that the Japanese are VERY worried about the risks of this disease becoming established in Japan. And most of these patients are from the quarantined cruse ship in Yokohama.”

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Perhaps compounding the Corona issue for Japan, IIRC, folks on the cruise ship with confirmed Corona ARE moved to Japanese hospitals.

      38 million folks live in greater Tokyo area, which includes Yokohama.
      Additionally, from Yokohama:
      – USN ships at Yokosuka is 10 miles south.
      – USAF at Yokota 35 miles northwest.
      – USN air Atsugi and US Army Camp Zama 20 miles west.

      FWIW, much of Japan’s population IS elderly, and the guys are chain smokers.

      Japan has much to be concerned with regarding Corona.

      US DoD and DoS surely paying attention.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. Sharing some of my favorite shopping places:

    this is an herb/tea store in East Nashville. Their prices are reasonable and the quality seems good. They are knowledgeable …. and they are absolutely leftist, hippy/dippy types. However, I shop there and we enjoy some of their products as a treat and are glad to have a regional (we aren’t in Nash) place to buy in person when we want just a little bit of something. I don’t feel very comfortable and don’t really like my son to be there as there are all types of people and they look at us suspiciously as we do not fit in + Trump bumper stickers.

    there blends are Wonderful and very reasonably priced. I make 1 mason jar with 1 of their packets. 12 packets come in each bag for $13.50. I will usually make a 2nd jar but it is much weaker, of course. Or make 2 jars and then combine the packets for a 3rd jar. Anyway, their packets are Much bigger than one buys in the little tea bags for 1 cup of tea. Pour hot water in your mason jar and immediately screw on the lid and let steep to get the most out of your herbs. Esp. hot water if roots are in the blend.

    they do ship and I am probably going to place an order as not going to Nash and $14 in shipping is cheaper and easier than the gas it would take…but hate $14 in shipping! oh well

    We like porcupine as one of our favorites but use a number of their blends.

    I order several brands from amazon &/or vitacost.com depending on who has the better price. I like traditional medicinals (throat coat is a favorite) and Numi.

    Mountain Rose always has good quality but prices are a little higher and shipping is on the high side as well.
    I go in with a friend and split things so we get a better deal but I don’t have as much product.
    herbs are light so 1/2 lb of something you don’t use very often can actually be a waste v. saving $.
    I have not had things we use often go bad or spoil. I keep them in sealed in the bags they came & then in a plastic food bucket with the lids screwed on tightly. Most of the time the buckets are cold to cool but in the summer they do get hot as my only storage for them is the garage. Some day a root cellar…some day.
    Anyway, all of their stuff is more expensive than bulkherbstore used to be and the nashville shop is so I only buy there what I can’t buy elsewhere.

    I used to LOVE this store. It was a TN business. Only ordered online. never went in person. the family sold it and it is now out of Missouri. I haven’t ordered since they changed hands. Blends and product are good with good pricing and fast customer service. The variety is much less now so I guess I will need to order more from Mtn. Rose.

    Lastly, we have had a Great experience with Buttlerfly express for essential oils and other products. Good quality, customer service and competitive pricing.

    We only drink teas that are organic and absent of “natural flavorings”. I would love to hear from you all where you source your products and vitamins/supplements too.

    quality and price are both so important.

    As to other things – we are looking around the house and trying to think about what consumables we use that might run low if supply chains are messed up due to China or wuhan flu going global.

    TP is made in the US but still stocking up a little extra. Dog & cat food made in US but still stocking up. Why? We aren’t sure if all of the ingredients/materials are US sourced. Also, thinking about toiletries but they are US made too. Trying to think ahead….

    Liked by 1 person

    1. A couple years ago I wanted some Gunpowder green tea and I could not find it locally. So Hubby went online and decided to buy at the ‘free shipping’ quantity = 5 Kilos!! That is 11 POUNDS of loose tea.

      So I took each 1 Kilo box, wrapped it in saran wrap, taped it and then wrapped it in aluminum foil and taped it again. Four boxes I stuffed into the back of the freezer. The last box I divided up and placed in mason jars. Taped the lids with stretchy electrical tape and stuffed all but one into the back of the freezer. I am finally on the last jar from the first box and I drink that tea as iced tea all summer long.

      6 Surprising Benefits Of Gunpowder Green Tea It is slightly different compared to other green teas and I love the flavor.


  14. This guy raising alarm. Is there a problem in Buffalo NY?? Authorities issued gag order?? Don’t know if it’s true. They better not be F’n around up there, it would be a nightmare if virus gets to NYC.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Butterfly, Me thinks we are OK.

      Yes, folks may be getting screened. Something to note, but not alarming. IMO. Actually, a really, really good thing, the screening.

      Diagnosed Corona? No. I don’t think so. They gotta release that information.

      No one wants Corona to get a foothold and spread here in the US.

      Bottom line, Buffalo videos above much ado about nothing…baseless hype.

      AND, yes, health, medical, fire and police ARE preparing for Corona problems. Including protocol, what information can and should be released. Fundamentally, we ALL are preparing to varying degrees for Corona, AND shortages in stores.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Agreed. Something about the guy in the video, I detected an “attitude”. I would like more sources to back up his claims. I don’t see how 700 Chinese students came in 45 days ago w/o the Govt knowing. Azar has assembled quite a team of top notch experts, including DHS and they’re on top of the situation. The only thing that concerns me is we’re talking about NY, the state that is uncooperative w/POTUS. Would they be so stupid as to implement a gag order to try and hide this from the Feds??? To somehow Try to damage POTUS politically?? Don’t trust Fredo’s Dad,, not one bit.

        Liked by 2 people

        1. Nor do I trust Fredo, or his corrupt Dad.

          BUT, health care workers are NOT going to hide verified Corona. NOT going to happen. IF a “gag” regarding confirmed Corona was directed by “officials” that would leak in a millisecond…would not be tolerated.

          The 700 hundred students, don’t know about the number. Nor does it bother me, except I wish they, whether it was one student or 700 were NOT attending our Universities.

          FWIW, my son attend UNR – University of Nevada, Reno. he told me there were plenty of Chinese, (NOT Americans) attending UNR. They hang together and don’t seem to assimilate with the general student body. That is his impression anyway. Thankfully he is always apart from their circles. AND, no doubt some of them went home to China for the holidays.

          Liked by 1 person

    2. bflyjesusgrl – If you see NY Guy posting anywhere – please try to make him aware of this post. I believe he is in or around the Buffalo area, I am in Canastota which is not too far away. Many thanks.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. YW, I will. Watching too, I think we need more corroboration from other sources on this info.


      2. If you live around there, keep your eyes and ears on a swivel. Maybe you get intel that confirms or denies. YouTuber mentioned Tonawonda and another area where medical treatment may be going on. Thank you..


  15. But it’s getting better, right??

    Liked by 1 person

  16. OMG, Hawaii is F’n clueless!!! Man who had coffee w/infected man offered to voluntarily quarantine himself, officials said don’t, no big deal. So since the state said he didn’t have to, he’s freely going out to dinner and anywhere he wants. Apparently Hawaii isn’t on board with our travel ban or any other pro-active measures.



  17. Just now, Johns Hopkins is showing Johns Hopkins is showing Diamond Princess 454 infected. Less than an hour ago, it was 369.
    AND, yesterday Johns Hopkins showed 759 NOT Mainland China infected. Just now that number is 1,346.

    Thinking my math is correct. Don’t see where Johns Hopkins populated the extra, almost 600 infected.

    Surely Johns Hopkins is using a data base or spreadsheet of sorts.
    – Easy to accept Diamond number jumping.
    – BUT, the Not Mainland China cases jumping without an indication where those cases. AND no public statements addressing almost 600 cases outside of Mainland China. ???

    Johns Hopkins chart bottom right shows Not Mainland china yesterday 780. Now 1.3K Yet, where, what country or ship are those cases?

    I must be missing something simple.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. And now, from http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/02/16/its-probably-nothing-51/

    Remember the MS WESTERDAM, the cruise ship that docked at Sihanoukville in Cambodia, and from which OVER 1,000 passengers were RELEASED TO LEAVE? That was last Sunday.

    Well, it now appears that the authorities are desperately trying to LOCATE these people, because one of them , an AMERICAN, had a TEMPERATURE at being scanned on arrival at the KUALA LUMPUR airport, and then tested POSITVE for the virus.

    Knowing now that the prime incubation period for the virus, which MAY OR MAY NOT present symptoms, is 16 days, these 1,000 people, EVEN IF they are “cleared” at the moment, are still potential carriers.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Every once in awhile we read up to 24 days. Slow guy here can’t figure out IF 24 is in play. 16 days in above post? Moar commonly I read 14 days.


  19. To give a reading on what may be in store fore us, I’m still waiting for some pockets of WuFlu to appear in some advanced, non-Asian countries . . . and then to closely watch the spread or eradication of that pocket.

    Less pollution, less smoking, fewer ACE-2 receptors, and better awareness of isolation, quarantine, and medical treatment strategies should all combine to reduce the spread and severity of the cases.

    To what degree? Well, that’s what I’m watching for.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Yea! Your point is what I tried to allude to yesterday, albeit rather clumsily.

      Looking for the trip wire to be tripped. For me, guessing it could be Australia, Canada or US. We may get the opportunity as US folks flown in from China and presently in quarantine on US military bases. in time they’ll be released.

      Moar likely the 1,000 or so “self monitoring” in LA area as I recall, are a potential for problems.
      Until the above becomes a problem or fades in likelihood, my primary focus is stocking stuff that will be in low supply as China logistics largely ceased, guessing, about four weeks ago.

      Liked by 1 person

  20. I will also post this on the open thread.

    From Larry L.

    ….This is likely going to generate some heartburn. Of course there is the question if this is real or faked conversation but based on what we know I would not be surprised if this is true. We will know in about 21 days when cases in the wild can no longer be hidden.

    To me this sounds a lot more realistic given what we know about travel to the USA from China, asymptomatic carriers, and contagion. We also know the CDC LIES just like the rest of the government bureauRats.


    1. So Nancy exists and is a career BureauRat.

      “….”We expect to see more cases of person-to-person spread,” Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases, said during a conference call that included confirmation of a handful of new cases, bringing the US total to 11….”

      Nancy Messonnier, MD, is the Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD). Since beginning her public health career in 1995 as an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer in the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases (DDID), Dr. Messonnier has held a number of leadership posts across CDC and within NCIRD. She served as Deputy Director of NCIRD from October 2014-March 2016, and led the Meningitis and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Branch in NCIRD’s Division of Bacterial Diseases from 2007-2012

      Dr. Messonnier has provided critical leadership to CDC’s cross-cutting laboratory, global health, and surveillance initiatives. She has been a champion for prevention and control of bacterial meningitis in the United States—from drafting the initial recommendations for meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine use in those heading for college, to the introduction of meningococcal conjugate vaccines for routine use in teens. She also oversaw a family of studies exploring resurgence of pertussis in the United States and characterizing post-licensure effectiveness of acellular pertussis vaccines. She played a pivotal role in the successful public-private partnership to develop and implement a low cost vaccine to prevent epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa. More than 150 million people in the African Meningitis Belt have been vaccinated with MenAfriVac since 2010, with remarkable impact.

      Dr. Messonnier also has been a leader in CDC’s preparedness and response to anthrax, including during the 2001 intentional anthrax release and in evaluating simplified schedules for use of licensed anthrax vaccine…..
      Dr. Messonnier received her BA from the University of Pennsylvania and MD from the University of Chicago School of Medicine. She completed internal medicine residency training at the University of Pennsylvania.https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/leaders/ncird.html

      Liked by 2 people

  21. On eating healthy for the flu from:

    E.M.Smith says:
    16 February 2020 at 10:41 pm

    That National Geographic link up thread pops a popup “share your data to read more”. Reloading it and stopping the load early stops the pop.

    After the SARS outbreak, the World Health Organization reported that the disease typically attacked the lungs in three phases: viral replication, immune hyper-reactivity, and pulmonary destruction.

    Not all patients went through all three phases—in fact only 25 percent of SARS patients suffered respiratory failure, the defining signature of severe cases. Likewise, COVID-19, according to early data, causes milder symptoms in about 82 percent of cases, while the remainder are severe or critical.

    That implies actual cases are about 4 to 5 times the reported cases that went to hospital and got tested.

    It is also hinted that attacking the chain of events at each step can reduce severity. Perhaps enough to have an easy time of it.

    So lots of vit C D and E</b. to reduce initial infection and replication.

    Then cytokine storm supression:
    Lower omega-6 raise omega-3, increase polyphenol ( nuts especially walnuts, brassicas, whole grains),
    red fruits and berries likely purple too,
    dark green and yellow leafy and veggies,
    lots of onions and garlic, green tea, red wine chocolate, turmeric also in mustard,
    keep your magnesium level up

    Good lung health to reduce ACE2 receptor levels, and potentially antivirals if things start getting bad.

    brassicas = members of the genus are informally known as cruciferous vegetables, cabbages, or mustard plants. Crops from this genus are sometimes called cole crops, including many economically important vegetables, such as cabbage, kale, broccoli, cauliflower, turnip, and mustard.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. From my understanding 14 days is typical ‘max’ while some people can go as long as 24 days before showing symptoms.

    Sounds like now they have up the typical to 16 days.
    Larry Ledwick says:
    10 February 2020 at 4:57 pm
    Troubling tid bit here:

    10 minutes ago
    (translated from portugese)
    This quarantine period info : o for 2019-nCoV has been 14 to 18 days because the incubation time is up to 14 days, but today’s news about a study indicates that the coronavirus incubation period can be up to 24 days –


    H.R. says:
    10 February 2020 at 1:24 am
    I’m still waiting on the next report on our daughter-in-law. She’s been home 7 days now.

    If she’s infected, we’re starting to approach the time she should start displaying symptoms.

    Oh, she did say that she slathered hand sanitizer on her airline seat. She thoroughly wiped down the area she would be occupying for the flight. Better than nothing, I guess.

    My son said he was surprised and disappointed that they didn’t whisk her away to a quarantine facility. They wouldn’t have been happy about it, but they are both more concerned for the population at large…..

    So there are LOTS of Americans walking around who were NOT quarantined.

    If they are young, female non-smokers who eat correctly they may not even know they had anything more than a bad ‘chest cold’

    Do not forget the news has buried it.
    Larry L.
    This is concerning I wonder what the national cross section of US citizens would look like if you asked that question. You cannot establish public protective measures if the general public is kept completely ignorant of the threat.

    Apomictic geneticst
    38s38 seconds ago

    Replying to @CBCNB @CBCNews
    I have been asking people on the streets about the covid 19 virus in Fredericton and only 2 knew or heard about it …but if another news channel didn’t inform the public that it was in Halifax BC Ontario over 2 weeks ago … and not one mention on the Canadian news networks Now

    A few day later Larry L. said
    “right now the major media is mostly ignoring COV-SARS-19 and the events in China, I made a quick round of the major media web pages yesterday and if they had any coverage at all it was to use the newspaper jargon “below the fold” and just a side bar item. I thing much of the clueless American public has little if any awareness of the situation.”

    Liked by 2 people

  23. Larry L.
    Looks like it will be difficult to control spread of COV-SARS-2 if this sort of spread is typical.


    …The ministry says he was controlling vehicle traffic on Tuesday for about 10 minutes as infected passengers left the ship, but kept a distance of at least two meters. It also says he did not come into contact with crew and passengers while on board.

    The official was diagnosed with the virus on Sunday, two days after developing a fever. The ministry says he was hospitalized early on Monday….

    Now think of all the asymptomatic people in US airports and the virus exchange toilet facilities….

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Head of Wuhan hospital HAS died of coronavirus, Chinese state TV says, after local officials revealed – and then denied – his death

    The head of a Wuhan hospital at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak has died of the disease, health officials have confirmed.

    Dr Liu Zhiming, 51, died this morning after ‘all-out rescue efforts failed’, according to state broadcaster CCTV – resolving a state of confusion last night after local officials reported his death before later denying it.


    Liked by 3 people

  25. kalbokalbs says: “…health care workers are NOT going to hide verified Corona. NOT going to happen. IF a “gag” regarding confirmed Corona was directed by “officials” that would leak in a millisecond…would not be tolerated….”

    Actually recent experience under OH!Bummer proves otherwise. Doctors and nurses treating illegals were ordered to SHUT-UP about the number of cases of nasty diseases allowed into the USA. The ‘Optics’ of disease ridden illegals might destroy the ‘fluffy harmless’ image the news was fostering. Also immigration laws say if you are diseased you get booted. Instead the kids were released into our school systems and their parents into our food service/hotel/daycare systems. Now we have treatment resistant TB and lice, leprosy, hepatitis and who knows what else.

    (I do not have access to my old list of bookmarks or I would post the specific URL)

    However I did find this:
    Remember when the media claimed that infectious disease outbreaks at migrant detention centers was “fake news?” Nope, they’re very real


    ….In the past 40 years, the United States registered a total of 900 cases of the feared Biblical disease–leprosy. Virtually unknown to Americans in the last century, leprosy exceeded 7,000 new cases brought in on the backs of newcomers since 2001….

    its new presence in America has caused 11 clinics to sprout up overnight. In the past six years, Levis and his staff have proved that many patients have contracted the disease without leaving the country…

    As a result, the disease is now officially endemic to the Northeastern United States for the first time, ever.

    Because illegal and legal immigrants are hired into food service, dish washing, cooking, hotels and day care–leprosy finds speedy access across the country…

    He goes on to detail:

    To show you how fast TB spreads; one infected illegal alien will infect between 10 to 50 Americans…

    One illegal in Denver last fall at a fast food restaurant affected over 1000 patrons with Hepatitis A….

    Not to be outdone, another disease makes its way across our borders. In South America, Chagas Disease is a T-cruzi parasite that infects 14 million people. It’s called the “Kiss of Death” because it’s spread by the kissing bug and kills 50,000 annually. Desperate South and Central Americans crash our borders while carrying the disease in their blood streams. It attacks the heart and other organs. It can’t be detected.

    When they give blood in Los Angeles and Miami, they contaminate our blood supplies. Nine deaths are confirmed in the last year. Three deaths came from heart transplant recipients. They not only got a new heart, they suffered death from the parasite in the transfusion…

    12/29/2018 / By Mike Adams Media buries the truth about illegal immigrants bringing wave of hepatitis, tuberculosis and HIV to America

    Media Buries Key Facts to Conceal Migrant Health Threat—TB, Hepatitis, HIV
    From Judicial Watch

    Here’s a great example of the mainstream media distorting information to promote a liberal agenda, an act that is especially pervasive when it comes to immigration coverage. A story published by NBC news, and reiterated by various other outlets, claims illegal immigrants don’t bring disease into the United States. The headline reads: “Migrants don’t bring disease. In fact, they help fight it, report says.” The article focuses on a study commissioned by a medical journal called the Lancet and University College London…..

    Judicial Watch has interviewed medical experts that confirm illegal immigrants do indeed pose a serious public health threat to the U.S. by bringing dangerous diseases into the country. This includes tuberculosis, dengue and Chikungunya….

    ….the influx of Venezuelans fleeing to neighboring countries…. are spreading malaria, yellow fever, diphtheria, dengue, tuberculosis and AIDS throughout South America. Many of the diseases had been considered eradicated in the neighboring Latin American countries

    And you can bet your bootie those diseases are on their way or have already arrived in the USA.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I checked my old notes and found this from OT:

      rashomon says:
      November 29, 2018 at 4:48 pm

      The CDC doesn’t have the best record for sharing The Truth with those who pay its bills — the taxpayers — and who are most at risk when the CDC does it wrong — the taxpayers and their children. Frankly, now that PDJT has convinced the VA to clean house, he needs to direct attention to the CDC’s impact on our healthcare and the schemes behind its operations..

      CDC Thomas Frieden Billions in Potential Scandals published Sept 18, 2018
      Just one Red Flag around the reign of Director Tom Frieden:

      “…Thomas Frieden, NYC Health Commissioner was working on the electronic health records project for two years before Obama created the “Act”. In 2009, he brought Frieden on as the CDC Director. Obama laid out billions on this, and big investors jumped on board. eClinicalWorks was building a name for itself and one month after the Act passed, they landed Walmart.

      In 2014 they land a government contract providing the EHR software to ALL immigration and customs enforcement detention facilities. These records therefore manage the data of all adults and children seeing the medical professionals that come into those facilities. Why is it important to gather this data, especially coming through immigration? Is child trafficking at play here? Is organ trafficking at play here? Neither is a leap, once you have reviewed all of the statistical data on both.

      Clearly the Justice Department was onto them, and it’s also clear that Obama orchestrated his healthcare scheme quite well with the help of Thomas Frieden.”

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Great information. Thank you.

        Not trying to have it both ways, so to speak. My trust for CDC is down there with DOJ, FIB…the infected restrooms at the airport. MCM equally as bad. Their corrupt narrative is purely ground in money and power.

        AND, 100% I understand and believe the information in above post. Me thinks, Corona IS a very different situation…as in IMMEDIATE threat. OR, I am clueless. Latter always a possibility.

        To be very clear, with Corona, I hugely differentiate that “confirmed” Corona is higher on the give a hoot chart than 14 day quarantine and almost laughable, self monitor. Folks being screened, not so much.
        – Absolutely “confirmed” must be public knowledge.
        – Good to know rough numbers in quarantine and self monitor.
        – folks being screened, sooo many red herrings to chase.
        – IF the system works with integrity, which we should insist on, we’ll be fine.

        My comment about health workers was intended for, and should have used “medical” workers. As in clinics, hospitals… Everyday Americans on the front lines of medical care.
        – I can’t believe front line medical workers would hide confirmed Corona cases. IF nothing else, they ARE working in the same environment, have family and friends potentially at stake, IF verified Corona is hidden in plain site. Simply beyond ignorant to hide verified Corona.


      1. My son, while I was stationed in Philippines 79-82 took med (INH, IHN, ?) for two years. Periodic chest x-rays to verify he was clear. And no moar tine tests for him.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. Actually I am much more likely to believe the Japanese numbers and data.

      At this point we should be seeing more confirmed cases popping up in California. On the other hand how many brainwashed medical types like the doctors in the UK, or that Virginia governor are there who see this virus as a way to wipe out the elderly and sick?

      Don’t forget it is the DOCTOR who has to call for the test and if not done correctly it will come up negative.

      Does Medicare for the elderly even ALLOW the test? Hubby’s doctor said he wanted to have a test done but Hubby was now too old to ‘qualify’


      Note the Virginia governor, advocating for KILLING new borns. Dr. Ralph S. Northam is a pediatric neurologist and specializes in pediatrics and pediatric neurology.

      A pediatric neurologist handles illness and conditions that affect the nervous system. Such as epilepsy, concussion, metabolic disorders, seizures, delayed speech, poor muscle tone, or frequent headaches.

      Any bets that Northam has helped ‘dispose’ of useless eaters that are a drain on society?

      From Fabian co-founder George Bernard Shaw

      “The moment we face it frankly we are driven to the conclusion that the community has a right to put a price on the right to live in it … If people are fit to live, let them live under decent human conditions. If they are not fit to live, kill them in a decent human way. Is it any wonder that some of us are driven to prescribe the lethal chamber as the solution for the hard cases which are at present made the excuse for dragging all the other cases down to their level, and the only solution that will create a sense of full social responsibility in modern populations?”

      Source: George Bernard Shaw, Prefaces (London: Constable and Co., 1934), p. 296.

      “Under Socialism, you would not be allowed to be poor. You would be forcibly fed, clothed, lodged, taught, and employed whether you liked it or not. If it were discovered that you had not character and industry enough to be worth all this trouble, you might possibly be executed in a kindly manner; but whilst you were permitted to live, you would have to live well.”

      George Bernard Shaw: The Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Socialism and Capitalism, 1928, pg. 470

      Sounds just like Northam doesn’t it?

      …asked by a radio host if he supported Virginia legislator Kathy Tran’s proposed law to permit abortion while a woman was in labor, Northam replied:

      This is why decisions such as this should be made by providers, physicians, and the mothers and fathers that are involved. When we talk about third-trimester abortions, these are done with the consent of the mother, with the consent of physicians, more than one physician by the way, and it’s done in cases where there may be severe deformities, there may be a fetus which is non-viable. So in this particular example, if the mother is in labor, I can tell you exactly what would happen, the infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if this is what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physician and the mother….

      Liked by 3 people

      1. I have little trust in doctors after Strong Memorial used my mother for their ILLEGAL Radiation experiments and then finished her off with their trial experiments of Chemo therapy.

        WORSE, since I am a chemist I had read about the side effects (weakens the heart) but I could not get either the cancer doctor OR the heart specialist to LISTEN. Turns out they were busy writing a paper with Mom as a guinea pig 😡 and did not want me ‘interfering’ One of the doctors let it slip when he yelled at me in the hall.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. At this point we should be seeing more confirmed cases popping up in California.

        ^^^ THIS. China flights into LAX / SFO with passengers connecting flights. SFO health schmucks meeting with China Town folk. Given the apparent rapid transmission of corona, I am amazed we have not had moar Corona in CA AND US in general. Certainly suspicious eyes on this. Vigilant with preps continuing.


    2. Trying to get a handle on the path of the disease in Japan.

      ….The New Year’s party was held on Jan. 18 by a branch of a private taxi union based in Tokyo’s Jonan area, and was attended by about 70 taxi drivers and their families who dined on the boat. However, the windows were shut due to heavy rain, creating a confined space with insufficient ventilation — the kind of environment where disease spreads more easily….

      An independent taxi driver in his 70s, who participated in the party along with his wife, had tested positive in Tokyo. He is the son-in-law of a woman in her 80s from Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo, who died on Feb. 13 — Japan’s first confirmed fatality from the COVID-19 illness.

      The metropolitan government began investigating in the wake of the woman’s death, and had confirmed 11 participants and yakatabune employees were infected with the coronavirus as of Feb. 16….


      FEBRUARY 3, 2020 / 6:27 AM / 14 DAYS AGO
      Japan to quarantine cruise ship on which coronavirus patient sailed

      ….Japan’s government said on Monday it would quarantine a Yokohama-bound cruise ship, after a Hong Kong man who sailed on it last month tested positive for coronavirus….

      The 80-year-old man flew to Japan and boarded the ship, the Diamond Princess, run by Carnival Japan Inc, in Yokohama on Jan. 20 and disembarked on Jan. 25, NHK public broadcaster said.

      He developed a cough a day before embarking but did not develop a fever until Jan. 30, a day before he was confirmed to have been infected by the virus in Hong Kong, NHK reported….

      Japan has 20 confirmed coronavirus cases, of these 17 people have been in Wuhan, the central Chinese city that is believed to be the centre of the virus outbreak.


      Liked by 3 people

  26. We’ve heard Tom Cotton talking about the possibility of the Coronavirus coming out of the BioWeapons lab in Wuhan.
    IMMEDIATELY, the Chinese responded.
    Do you find that odd?
    Out of all the worldwide press coverage of Coronavirus, that the CCP responded so quickly to a single Senator from the USA?

    Well, Tom Cotton is not the only one making the accusation anymore.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Cotton has been raising the alarm over Corona and potential weaponizing by China.

      It may be weaponized. Can’t dismiss it. I do believe Corona got out by accident – staff failure to follow protocol or equipment failure.

      AND, IF weaponized, China would use it if they felt it was to their advantage.

      Liked by 1 person

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