20200125: Coronavirus

The details of the Coronavirus are sketchy and unreliable, which is why I avoided posting a thread. None of us want to spread bad information, and we don’t want to OVERreact and spread hysteria. The problem with this issue is, that as fast as the disease is spreading, so is the bad information. Thus, this thread. Perhaps we can sort fact from fiction within this forum.

Most of the reporting refers to various provinces of China (like our states). This map might be helpful as a reference.

World Health Organization Link: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus

American CDC Link: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/index.html

The South China Morning Post is an outlet many of us follow. They are tracking the story closely. I counted a total of 25 stories about Coronavirus on their main page this morning. Here is their link: https://www.scmp.com/news/china

We know the US Senate has been briefed on the virus. Here is the President’s latest tweet:

This video is from a BBC reporter crossing a checkpoint in Henan (on the interior). He had his temperature checked before crossing the border.

Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, Harvard PhD in Epidemiology, and youngest dual PhD from Harvard SPH, has a thread which explains the contagen and the virality of spread, which scientists characerize as an RO factor. What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8 Reference for the typical spread rate of seasonal flu is found here: https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480 and the model for the Coronavirus is found here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is alarmed by the high rate of spread for this virus.

PLEASE understand, the above thread is alarming………..!!!!!!! Kyle Bass, the hedge fund guy who has specialized in China for decades responds to the info posted by Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (above) as follows:

If we think of the Coronavirus as a super version of a common cold, then we should make sure to wash hands, doorknobs, switchplates, cover mouth and nose when sneezing, ……. and don’t eat partially cooked bat soup from China. NOTE: The CDC in the USA has changed their position and is specifically NOT confirming the source of the disease as the Wet Animal Market in Wuhan. The CDC has yet to determine the source of this disease.

Within this thread, please dump your comments and theories, videos and links. Perhaps together, we can all get closer to the truth.

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