20190831 Hurricane Dorian. Updated at 11:00PM, August 31th.

Updated 11:00PM, August 31, 2019

As of 8:00am, August 31, 2019, Hurricane Dorian remains Category 4 Hurricane with sustained wind at 145mph. The storm pressure has fallen to 944 millibars, indicating strengthening. We’re only a few miles short of Cat 5. Mandatory evacuations have already been issued for portions of Brevard County. No solid storm track has been locked in, we still don’t know where this storm will land.

The Orlando Airport will close at 2:00AM on Monday morning (Sunday night).

Personal thank you to all who have contributed hints, tips, photos, maps, this has definitely turned into a group effort. Where we go one, we go all. Thank you for your generosity. Please pardon me if I have forgotten to name you specifically, working quickly here. Issuing apology in advance.

Here is the 11:00PM Bulletin from NOAA.


000 WTNT35 KNHC 310240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 …DORIAN EVEN STRONGER… …NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…25.5N 71.4W ABOUT 545 MI…880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States…6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ————- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

NOAA at about 10:45pm on August 30th.

From Smiley2
BREAKING : Hurricane WATCH ~ NW BAHAMAS …
**BREAKING** Hurricane Watches have been issued for the NW Bahamas. That means hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, and it’s issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds. We are LIVE with the latest #tropics #Dorian pic.twitter.com/dl8ICIrrPR
— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) August 30, 2019

Smiley provided us a live link to the Bahamas. Excellent.

I strongly recommend the latest video from Tropical Tidbits that explains the hurricane prediction. In short, the hurricane slows to a crawl over the weekend, which MAY provide enough time to allow other troughs to come in and move the hurricane away from shore. Unfortunately, stalling out over the Bahamas for days creates Harvey-like flood, wind, storm surge problems for the Florida coast (not to mention the people in the Bahamas are screwed).

From SadieSlays — my ghostwriter for the duration of Dorian.

Intense thunderstorm towers close to the EYE of the Hurricane.

Florida Emergency Management, informative website and bulletins out of Florida: https://floridadisaster.org/

Almost everyone who lives in the southeast has a family “plan” for hurricanes. When I grew up in New Orleans, had grandparents in Pensacola, and lived in Miami, the “plan” was for me to travel and get out of the way. Checklists were taped to an inside closet door. Even now that we are 350miles inland, we still have a list of friends/family whom we KNOW will travel to our house should a hurricane head their way. An exceptionally good Hurricane checklist can be found HERE: https://www.surfandsunshine.com/how-to-prepare-for-a-hurricane-with-hurricane-preparedness-checklist/

We can add things like: Make sure you do ALL your laundry NOW and refill all medications. A well stocked, expanded, home first aid kit. An extra set of blades for a chainsaw is a Godsend. Bleach and clean all the tubs in your home and fill with water before the storm hits (if you’re staying). Right now, bake – cookies, brownies, granola bars for a healthy boost…… and share with your local fireman/police. Right now, FREEZE extra water in big containers using milk jugs/2 liter bottles, etc., to make big blocks of ice. Extra propane for the grill and a big pot to boil water.

Best personal hint: We took about 100 dish clothes/wash clothes and wet them with fresh water, added a few drops of bleach, sealed them in Glad Bags and put them in the freezer. In the aftermath, we used those towels everywhere.

Many Florida residents are new to the state and we strongly encourage they prepare and/or rely on neighbors who are a little more experienced with hurricane preparations. KNOW your neighbors, you won’t get through the aftermath of a hurricane without help from a few friendly souls.

Please feel free to add tips, tricks, memes, hints, prayers related to Hurricane Dorian. Thank you for your help.

The President is at Camp David, Pence will travel to Poland. The President will return for a press conference at FEMA on Sunday, about 12:30pm

Nature, in all it’s power and fury is still beautiful. Look at the light show from the International Space Station.

177 thoughts on “20190831 Hurricane Dorian. Updated at 11:00PM, August 31th.

      1. The NHC has an animated history of the warning cones. It’s interesting to watch. As late as Wednesday, Dorian was supposed to make landfall in Florida as a Cat 3+ on Labor Day. Even the President was calling it “bigger than Andrew.” By Friday, the hurricane models had the storm slowing down to a 5 mph crawl and “waiting” for nearby air masses to carry the hurricane out to sea like we’re seeing now with the current cone. -Something- significantly slowed the hurricane down between Wednesday and Friday morning.

        https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

        Liked by 5 people

  1. New update from the homefront…if Dorian makes the turn north by Monday morning REALLY early, we will not be getting house guests. They, meaning my sister in law, don’t want to deal with no power. God forbid she can’t be on her laptop for more hours than she is asleep on any given day.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. New Storm post is out if interested.
    THANK YOU again to all the hints, video, pics, and stories.
    You guys are the best!
    We’re going to make it through this storm together.

    Liked by 1 person

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