The Impact of American Tariffs on China

This is a broad overview, our American philosophy, a rough draft if you will allow me. We will get far more into the technical side of specific goods and industries as our trade negotiations develop. Currently, we have a “temporary” tariff of 25% on about 250 billion of Chinese imports. These are not “Permanent tariffs” as part of a long and ongoing US policy. It’s a tool to make China behave. If China agrees to behave, with an all important enforcement mechanism, then the tariff would go away. The choice is up to China.

Yes, the President is correct, the Chinese have devalued their currency, which creates the effect of the “tariff penalty” being paid on the Chinese side. Let’s take a look at the new temporary tariffs scheduled to be enacted on September 1, 2019.

You guys know me. I’m a numbers gal.
The USA has a 20 trillion dollar economy.
The new tariffs will be a 10% tariff on 300 billion in imported goods. This tranche of tariffs is mostly consumable products. The Trump administration was careful and saved those for last, hoping the Chinese would negotiate honorably…. but they have not.

In fact, per Maria Bartiromo this morning, the Chinese have backed out of all items where they previously agreed. Maria was wide-eyed when she explained —– The Chinese even backed out of their agreement to punish fentanyl makers who send drugs to the USA, which was important to President Trump. Got that? They want to continue killing Americans………. change your perspective a little bit? 

Back to the numbers: 

300 billion/20 trillion = .015
That’s 1.5% of our economy which COULD cost 10% more because of these tariffs.
Actual cost is even less. The increase would be .15%
A 10% tariff on the 300 Billion is .0015 or about 1/10th of 1% of our economy. Gotta move that decimal to the right, one more time, to get the actual cost of the increase.

Of course, that’s assuming the USA consumer still buys the same Chinese goods, the same supply chain, and nothing else changes. Think about your entire household income. Your budget may include mortgage/rent, a car, auto insurance, home insurance, health insurance, utilities, gas for the car, food, savings, maybe a summer vacation with the kids. Very little of what you spend your money on will be an item imported from China. AND, now that you’re more aware of what China has done to our economy, send fentanyl to our shores, their theft of intellectual property………
……. would you buy those dish towels/kids toy/light bulb from China…… or India….. or Turkey…. or Brazil…… or maybe even a dish towel/kid toy made in the USA?

Bottom line, the impact on the USA side is minimal – yet the devastation on the Chinese side is massive. Chinese exports to the USA are already down 11% with millions of jobs lost on the Chinese side. The President’s tactics are superior and he’s playing hardball. “Diplomacy” was never effective, other leaders have tried. We do have the upper hand. Don’t let the media worry you. And understand, these are not permanent tariffs. Here, tariffs are being used as a penalty, a tool, by President Trump to finally bring China to the table on trade…. to get them to stop stealing our intellectual property, and to trade fairly according to rules of the WTO…… remember those WTO rules….. the rules agreed to by every nation?

Sure, the problem of China acting badly should have been addressed by previous Presidents, before we lost our manufacturing base in the USA. Yet, the problem of where we are now was egged on by “leaders” in the USA. We were told that opening our markets to the Chinese would bring them into the 21st century, spread democracy,…. make the Chinese….. more like us. How arrogant they were. No, the story of rainbows, unicorns, and world peace, only masking the real motive…… love of money.

In the USA, historically low interest rates after the crash of ’08 helped companies grow and expand……. but multinational companies took loans from USA banks (and European banks as well) and expanded overseas…… which furthered the devastation of our manufacturing base. Low percentage to Zero tariffs, bringing the goods back into the USA, helped boost profits of multi-nationals and created cheaper goods in the USA……… but it was a sugar high. The hidden cost was far greater.

Shuttered factories all over the country are the result. Unemployed skilled workers are the result. Torn apart families and an increase in opioids are a result. Loss of ethics, honor, and a new attitude of “what can the government do for me – cuz I want a check”, is a result. But hey……. we can still by cheap towels from China with our welfare benefits.

With our last measure of dignity, we elected President Trump, in part, to fix the problem. It won’t be easy and we know it. We’re overdue for a solution. Leaders have to make tough choices. It’s time to make a stand…….. before there is nothing left of the American economy to stand upon.

Think about it this way. If we are mostly a consumer driven economy…. then right now, we are like a couch potato, cozy and comfy, eating doughnuts and pizza, as much as we want…. but we’re using our nation’s credit card to buy the doughnuts and our kids will pay the bill. If we don’t make anything anymore, if we don’t export, then the couch potato ends up eating seaweed and begging for a fish head. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that we are now older, fatter, lazier, more comfortable on the couch…….. and many have lost the fight…. no longer proud of their country…… nor inherently indignant about being told what to do and how to think.

As someone who trades internationally, I live in this industry. The “Problem of China” was the primary reason I voted for President Trump. I know other countries addressed the problem of Chinese trade — long go. Their leaders put in permanent tariffs. Turkey has imposed a permanent 18% tariff on Chinese goods. Brazil has a 35% tariff. You will laugh……. even IRAN has a 40% tariff on the importation of Chinese goods. We all know China cheats.

As someone who works in the building industry, I’m also aware of Chinese intellectual property theft. A software program called AutoCad is used by almost all architects. The cost of a license, to me, is about $15K. My head man in China downloaded it for $1.00. While the software expense of $15K might be frustrating for me…….. it’s nothing compared to losing the design for a nuclear submarine……. or a new jet fighter. My little condo plans don’t endanger national security.

We also know…. when the money is worked out, when “America is wealthy again”, we can afford to be generous. For instance, if I have $1.00, I can buy a soda. If I have $5, I can buy a soda and a burger. If I have $20, I can invite friends. The Dems, our political opposition, loves to spend money on lavish domestic programs. Even Republicans agree, we want to help those in need, but Republicans like to track the funds for effectiveness. With the money worked out, with trade worked out, we can afford to be more generous to those Americans who are truly in need.

Right now, for our economy, for our future stability, it’s a question of priorities.

And our priority is America, first!

End.

57 thoughts on “The Impact of American Tariffs on China

  1. There was a guy on fox biz yesterday who kept saying how worried he was about the “decoupling” of the china and U.S. markets. That it was such a bad thing for the consumer here and the producer there. That, gasp, the Chinese would lose so many jobs. I couldnt believe that fox did not pysh back or question him once.
    I had to turn it off. The guy was promoting everything YOU just laid out why we voted for POTUS!!!

    Liked by 14 people

      1. We deal in granite/marble/big heavy quarried blocks – big shit – heavy shit.
        Can’t tell you how many photos I have received of workers wearing flip-flops.

        Liked by 11 people

        1. Flip flops are the equivalent of safety shoes in third world countries.

          In third world countries, shoes (forget the steel toes) are for dress up special occasions.

          Liked by 9 people

          1. When I lived/worked in Guatemala (rural), shoes were only worn at Easter. Too precious to be worn otherwise.
            One of my fondest memories…one day I was wearing brown sandals and I noticed a group very interested in them….pointing and saying..”zapatos de Jesus” ( Jesus shoes). It cracked me up, having spent time in San Francisco where brown sandals were commonly known as Jesus shoes.

            Liked by 10 people

    1. I keep Fox Biz on in the background most of the day. We have to.
      The business has been a superb education on trade policies.
      In the brokerage firm, I only traded stock/FX.
      But actually trading goods has been a real eye-opener.

      Liked by 10 people

  2. Excellent, Daughn. It is NOT easy to take a complicated subject – especially involving numbers – and present it in a way that makes sense to Main Street, and is so logical it cannot be refuted by Wall Street.

    What is even MOAR encouraging is watching President Trump bring jobs home from China while specifically highlighting the (intentional) failings of Leftist leaders in our urban centers. The two are intertwined, and serve to ‘force multiply’ the decline of our middle class.

    There is nothing more critical to our nation’s survival than giving heads of households – married or single – the opportunity and dignity to be financially educated and self-sufficient. Teach a man to fish …

    Liked by 15 people

    1. I look at my experience as fingernail size (itty bitty) compared to what Trump has done to outfit high rises and condos.
      He’s gonna annihilate China.
      I would.
      Funny, I confess. When I did biz in the Middle East, I viewed it as “getting our money back”. In other words, Making America Wealthy Again.

      And the dignity of work – you are spot on.
      Years ago, I read a PhD dissertation from two guys. One was at MIT and one at Stanford. I read the whole damn thing even though……… I can’t ever remember seeing anything so evil.
      Basic premise =
      Keep shipping manufacturing overseas.
      It does not matter if USA workers go on entitlements because they can buy MORE and CHEAPER goods at Wal-Mart.
      Yeah.
      Oh yeah.
      That’s when I passed the dissertation to several of my customers to read. We tried EVERYTHING we could think of to bring the business home. We were biz owners. We had the ear of our Congressmen. We got nowhere.
      Until…….. Trump.

      Liked by 12 people

  3. Brilliant post!

    It is a tragedy for the rest of the world, but Chinese society is based on lying, scamming, cheating, and stealing. Whether Maoist or not, using tricks is the foundation of China. Lack of empathy is essential.

    For the Chinese who want to live as humans (like those in Hong Kong), repression is the only answer.

    Liked by 15 people

    1. I’ve said for years that the Chinese empire of lies is a paper tiger. It was NOT always a popular position and earned me a lot of criticism.

      We’re finally starving the Dragon of it’s PAPER and we see it flailing around helplessly desperately trying to get free of the boot we’ve put on it’s neck.

      It might seem unfair to lefties but when you’re dealing with a snake you MUST act decisively from a position of power!

      Liked by 13 people

    1. Look at that Chinese advantage right there. Think a product can be cheaper when 15K (and possibly many seats of the stuff) gets lashed from the budget immediately? Of course it can.

      The Main Street / Wall Street point is this – WALL STREET could afford to turn a blind eye toward Chinese cheating. Doing so put them on the winning side. Main Street was the one who paid the price!

      Liked by 12 people

  4. “Low percentage to Zero tariffs, bringing the goods back into the USA, helped boost profits of multi-nationals and created cheaper goods in the USA……… but it was a sugar high. The hidden cost was far greater.”

    I love it! I wish you would’ve called them out more.

    All the financial networks have been talking about Trump’s changes to the economy being a “sugar high”!

    WHERE DID THEY GET THAT IDEA FROM? HMMMMMM???

    Temporarily lower costs of TVs and electronics for consumers is a sugar high.

    Manufacturing job growth and restoring American industry is not a sugar high!!!

    These talking heads have the AUDACITY to push such a PHONY TALKING POINT! They get away with it because most people watching these shows have very little understanding of the underlying economics, or the history of what has been sold (scammed) to the American populace for the last 40+ years. SPIT!

    Liked by 10 people

  5. “We also know…. when the money is worked out, when “America is wealthy again”, we can afford to be generous. For instance, if I have $1.00, I can buy a soda. If I have $5, I can buy a soda and a burger. If I have $20, I can invite friends. The Dems, our political opposition, loves to spend money on lavish domestic programs. Even Republicans agree, we want to help those in need, but Republicans like to track the funds for effectiveness. With the money worked out, with trade worked out, we can afford to be more generous to those Americans who are truly in need.”

    I’m sure you were trying to wrap up your thoughts and added this section as a Coda to show where this is going…

    …but the American history of generosity is unmatched in all civilization – with the possible exception of the English and Irish revivals.

    Charitable giving took a nose dive in 2008. (I’ve always wondered if that was by DESIGN… but I digress…) The contraction of income hit families VERY hard. The giving numbers everywhere tell the story. Just the Southern Baptist alone dropped 50% and twelve years later have NEVER recovered.

    Some leftist somewhere is doing a victory lap on the way to the bank gloating about how they broke the charities and charitable giving of the right. They love calling Christians hypocrites while doing everything possible to undermine churches politically, financially, legally, and with every culture war issue under the sun. Meanwhile they enriched themselves off the ill-gotten gains and through graft and corruption.

    But Americans are the most generous and giving people in the world. And to a fault – people still donate huge sums to organizations like the Red Cross, and gave generously to the Haiti relief efforts.

    Think about this: In the 1800s, Christian denominations all started medical missions programs that would grow and become hospitals and the basis for modern medicine and the entire health care sector of the economy. These were people who were motivated by faith to work to heal others and alleviate suffering. The costs were staggering so they created systems of charity and insurance to help make sure those in the greatest need could get the help they needed.

    The names of these hospitals tell the story. Presbyterian. Methodist. Adventist. Baylor (Baptist). Saint Fill in the Blank. Even the Jewish community started and built hospitals – and these were again faith-based institutions.

    If people didn’t have insurance, there was charity. Churches and missions boards could contribute. Later there were charities like March of Dimes to cure polio. But they weren’t government programs – they were charitable organizations.

    The leftists can’t stand competition. Many efforts have been made to regulate and squash medicine under a heap of insurance paperwork. Since when did Insurance become the King Rulers over the Health Care industry? B.S.!

    But that wasn’t good enough, they had to have a complete takeover of health care! Hillary Care and then Obama Care. The government will take care of you, cradle to grave. If you make it out of the cradle, they’ll make sure you make it to the grave.

    And now look at the clown car! It’s still not enough! They want to NATIONALIZE the entire health insurance sector too! It’s not enough to control all health care, they want to control every aspect of how it is paid!

    Don’t look at the intent, look at the OUTCOME. The OUTCOME they want is the destruction of all health insurance and health care in the United States. Total destruction.

    And that is only a small sliver – because they have GUTTED American’s livelihoods. They have crushed charities and squeezed them out. This is a huge story that isn’t told. Ministries to the inner cities can help people get trained, skilled, to find jobs and productive work. There are many success stories. But they are facing steep competition in the market from the huge Welfare Bureaucracy. People won’t work for $8/hour when they can do nothing for $12/hour in government benefits.

    But why are the wages so low? Thanks again to our leaders selling us out to China! Funny how that’s come full circle.

    And we have the squad pushing for $15/hour minimum wage to squeeze out and destroy all remaining jobs in the lower rungs of the pay scale. Used to be you could climb the corporate ladder – but now you have to at least be able to jump ten feet to grab it – they want to put it out of reach for those who need it most and make them dependent on government!

    AGAIN: Not intentions but OUTCOMES.

    Eliminating all these predative and parasitical dynamics will go a long way to restoring American charitable giving and volunteering. Finally we have someone who is willing to attack the BEAST head on!

    Liked by 12 people

    1. Red Cross turns out to be suspect…..

      3552
      Video of Red Cross Smuggling Cash Is Unrelated to the FREEDOM Stringer in Previous Drop
      Q
      !!mG7VJxZNCI
      30 Jul 2019 – 1:32:47 AM
      Anonymous
      30 Jul 2019 – 1:28:22 AM

      8b078837f12b17cae44abbbffc7d415168c6a736201f76b4b90d24de4e6de956.mp4

      >>7255068

      Liked by 7 people

    2. Michael – the Mayo Clinic started that way also. There is an excellent documentary of its beginnings on Amazon Prime. Well worth watching. Thank you for the excellent post, BTW….

      Liked by 4 people

    3. So I’m reading through the posts, waiting to tell Daughn how much I appreciate and got out of her article but have to screech to a halt for a sec, reread that, then tell you that makes a lot of sense and you put it together well. Thanks michaelh

      Liked by 2 people

  6. Great post! I wish every reader of the WSJ would print this off and stick it to their mirror! This is the REALITY of dealing with China.

    We were SOLD the basic idea of China becomes another America, and thereby, both wealth and wealth production are spread.

    The REALITY is that the Chinese government had not intention of letting that happen, and weaponized the DESIGN of the entire process to make America pay for its own demise. They baited in Wall Street with the ANT POISON of knifing Main Street behind Wall Street’s back, and then making Wall Street take the blame.

    In fact, I wonder WHO IN CHINA came up with the “Occupy Wall Street” tactic. That idea is so “China”, if you ask me.

    China gets Wall Street to knife Main Street. Then they get Hipster Avenue to knife Wall Street. Meanwhile, laughing in the Chinese Embassy. Their MINIONS here in DNC, Hollyweird and RevCom advance.

    Liked by 12 people

    1. Well, after we did the long dive on Ukraine, and “Pick up Your Damn Trash”, we KNOW the real Russian government actually DOES fund the green groups.
      Which makes sense.
      Make the USA less oil-rich, and Russia wins – both economically and geopolitically.

      Liked by 9 people

      1. The UAE was also funding some of the Anti-Fracking propaganda.

        https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/anti-fracking-film-produced-abu-dhabi-oil-money

        They funded that dreadful Matt Damon movie, ‘Promised Land’.

        After our VSG went to Saudi Arabia, that crap has dried up.
        I think it was a brilliant move…the way PDJT chose the KSA for his ‘first state visit’ as President.

        He got their help in destroying ISIS and probably warned them that he was going to be unleashing our domestic Oil Industry.

        As a result…we aren’t having any price wars on the price of oil.
        The price is remaining at a profitable level for all concerned, which makes it easier for producers to plan their exploration and production.

        Liked by 4 people

        1. Excellent point, Wheatie.
          Another data point to add to the list.
          You’re right. Dried up after Trump in Saudi.

          Like

  7. Magnificent Post, Daughn! I feel so much better with you at the financial helm – as much as I try to remain positive – the Cheating Chinese – continue to concern me – they have gotten away with so much for the last 40 + years – every time they get into trouble – they devalue the Yuan – like that is their saving grace – nothing new under the sun.

    Thanks for taking the time to explain this complex situation for us – it is most appreciated! God Bless You!

    Liked by 10 people

  8. I still keep several friends in the brokerage biz, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc.
    One of them, a brilliant guy, total autist, wrote a piece we all passed around.
    Basic premise=
    Do I trade on what I know (fundamentals)
    or Do I trade on what I know the market will do (crazy swings overly emotional reaction)
    For a fund manager, this is a big question.

    Imagine me as a fund manager.
    I know the whole tariff thing is a temporary thing with Trump/China, and I can see what he is doing. I also know half the companies in my fund have factories in China.
    OMG – hair on fire!
    I call all these companies to see what they are doing — because I am a fund manager and my personality means I am smarter and have the superpower to control EVERYTHING in the world.
    Never forget the “ego quotient” when dealing with a fund manager.

    I ran the numbers I posted above, in my head, on my way into work on the train. I know it’s no big deal to the USA economy but I deal in foreign economics. The impact on China concerns me. Yet a swing for a few days is no big deal in the 30yr life of someone’s retirement account.

    I also know most people now trade themselves, Etrade, Schwab, etc. I know the pundits on biz tele are all hard leftists. They will do anything to harm Trump and blow up the news to their political advantage. Thus, the market will go down.

    But I am a really smart fund manager, and I am betting Trump will be re-elected.
    I think I might speculate on land, over 10 acres, zoned industrial or B3, around railyards, exit ramps, and within an hour of major metros.

    Liked by 10 people

    1. Right along my way of thinking, without all the experience/data to back up my hunches.

      The day after the 2016 election I shifted my (somewhat meager) retirement account into some stock market index funds based on my sense of what a Trump administration would do for our economy. I choose funds that were NOT “diversified” to include international stocks. The only concern I had was the way American companies are in other countries that could have a major shift or downturn. Based on “unrealized gains” this has been working out pretty well for that pot of money.

      Liked by 6 people

  9. I blame our past Presidents for this sell out it really burns my ass.
    Good thing we are going back to growing hemp because it makes the best rope,chuckle chuckle.
    We The People have been sold out for a very long time, it’s time to take back America.

    Liked by 8 people

  10. Bletch….. tv on this am , usual idiot talking heads and George fucking Takai. What a wanker! Evil orange man putting children in cages, evil pumpkin dumkin treating POC like shit. Immigrants in fear of their lives. ( note. Did not specify they are illegal immigrants). He, himself, was put into internment camp at 5 as his parents were Japanese. They came and battered the door with rifles with fixed bayonets blah, blah, blah. ffs if they knew what he would become they should have skewered him right then. Eye bleach where art thou?

    Liked by 3 people

      1. Yeah, they got locked up not gassed. And wtf would soldiers arrive with fixed bayonets o a residential address? Never let the truth interfere with a good story. Tbh feelings were running so high after pearl harbour it probably afforded Japanese American families with protection

        Liked by 2 people

        1. Hey, war is hell. I’m sure it afforded them a great deal of protection and they could be together to converse, and probably allowed to become tribal if their inclinations led them that way. The opposite of assimilation for a while. I’m completely assuming and don’t mean to minimize how hard it must have been but they must have had a chance to see the world clearly and deal with whatever their loyalties or compunctions would tell them what’s best.
          My grandparents struggled too, Grandpa being in Europe with the 82nd airborne and grandma home with 4 little boys at the time. I’m just glad he made it home so I could someday meet and hang out with him. We had lots of fishing and camping trips. I sure miss him.

          Liked by 2 people

  11. Excellent essay, Daughn!
    😀👍

    About that ChiCom currency manipulation…
    Doesn’t that HURT the Chinese people?

    I mean…it makes their currency less valuable, right?
    So I would think that it hurts their people’s buying power, and makes them have to pay more for the same things.

    There is one way that we have ‘brought the Chinese into the 21st Century’…
    We have totally ‘polluted’ their culture with our Western ways.
    Heheh. 😁

    Instead of wearing their Mao jackets and traditional Chinese wear…they are now wearing blue jeans and the Western-type clothing that the people there are seeing being manufactured in the Western-owned factories there.

    They have also embraced our Western music and dancing.
    You may have seen this video when it went viral a few years ago:

    .

    The Shuffle Dance has swept the country, since then:

    .

    Instead of doing the traditional Chinese group-exercising routines, they are now doing the Shuffle Dance:
    Haaa.

    .
    This video has been remixed and shared back over there…which is sort of another ‘cultural exchange’:

    Liked by 4 people

    1. I am hoping that the Chinese people will rise up and demand higher wages.

      Without the sweat shops and slave wages…China would no longer have something to lure Western multinationals to locate there.

      Liked by 2 people

    2. The most important thing they import is food. Basic bedrock food. And lots of it from the us, Australia, Brazil etc. their pigs have got some disease necessitating the culling of most of their herds. They NEED the us and Brazilian soy beans etc. they are going to be out of work with food prices going through the roof. They are fucked

      Liked by 2 people

    3. Wheatie, again, you see beyond the horizon.
      Currency manipulation does hurt the Chinese. They have no Social Security system so they are forced to all save for their own retirements. Thus, many have “big savings”
      I noticed something funny though.
      Chinese vendors like to put their price lists in USD.
      Noticeable.
      Thus, when gov’t devalues – they get MORE money for goods, like an unexpected raise in prices.
      Clever, eh?
      They got me a few times, and then I demanded prices lists in yuan, rupees, etc.
      And the Chinese are SOOOOOOOOOo dirty, they like to charge Americans for the currency exchange at THEIR banks…. which is sometime another 2%.
      Devious.
      Have to watch every penny.

      Liked by 2 people

  12. From the US Census. The two most important jobs (manufacturing and education) DECREASED while government INCREASED

    In 1970………………………………………………………………………………… 1996
    Total Work Force = 82,771,000…………………………………………… 133,662,000

    Total state, loc, fed gov = 12,320,637 or 14.89% ……… 22,048,000 or 16.5%

    Manufacturing WF = 19,864,209 or 24.00%……………. 13,632,000 or 10.2%

    Education WE = 6,079,968 or 7.35%………………… 3,215,100 or 2.4%

    Liked by 3 people

  13. Most informative Daughn. I’m so glad we finally have a President looking out for us. I just wonder, who’s going to subsidize everything when the American worker is taken out?

    .. Oh crap, that’s right, we’ll all be serfs and slaves and things will go back to normal like before pesky American colonists fought, died and gave up everything to give us a Republic based on God given rights. If it weren’t for us meddling, self determined patriots then the privileged few could rule over is all. Curses!
    Never give over all of your arms. Never.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. His face is showing wear, like a tire getting close to the tread indicators.

      He should have taken his millions and retired the day after DJT won the election. If I were him, I sure would have.

      Liked by 2 people

  14. Price of gold has spiked.
    I have an imaginary 100 trillion dollar plan/reorientation of assets to save the world that has run though my head for decades. I need to write it down, one day.
    On gold, I started at about 8.7 trillion and just passed the 15 trillion dollar mark yesterday. It was my safety net within my 100 trillion dollar plan.
    Anyway.
    Just a hunch, but the spike on gold, I see it as outflow of capital from Hong Kong.

    And I see the Chinese move on Hong Kong as a necessity to rob another piggy bank.
    Remember, China had 1.6 trillion of OUR bonds.
    They’ve been cashing them out to prop up their own economy – now the Chinese are at about 1 trillion (last time I checked – could be under a trillion by now).

    But they need money to keep their “paper tiger” going.
    Hong Kong is ripe for the picking.
    It’s going to be ugly in Hong Kong.

    Liked by 3 people

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